Paste Your Decklist
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Sideboard supported
Sideboard
FK Formula
FK
Example Format
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Steam Vents
Sideboard:
2 Force of Negation
1 Engineered Explosives
Separate sideboard with a blank line or "Sideboard:" header
Target Probability:
90%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Adjust the target probability for casting spells on time. Higher values require more mana sources.
Mathematical Model
OnCurve uses the hypergeometric distribution to calculate the probability of drawing enough mana sources by a specific turn.
Formula:
P(X ≥ k) = Σ P(X = i) for i = k to min(n, K)
Where:
- N = Deck size (typically 60)
- K = Number of mana sources in deck
- n = Cards drawn by target turn (7 + turn - 1)
- k = Required mana sources needed
This is based on Frank Karsten's methodology for mana base analysis, widely used in competitive Magic: The Gathering.
The model assumes optimal play and doesn't account for mulligans, card draw, or opponent interaction.
CONSISTENCY GRADE
How the Grade is Calculated
The grade is based on the percentage of spells that can be cast consistently:
- Risks (low probability) count as 1.0
- Warnings (medium probability) count as 0.5
Grade Scale:
A+: 0 risks, 95%+ (fewer warnings allowed)
A: 0 risks, 90%+ (more warnings allowed)
B+: 80%+
B: 70%+
C+: 60%+
C: 50%+
D: Below 50%
-
No risks detected
DECK ANALYSIS
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-
-
Total Cards
-
Lands
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Avg CMC
-
KEY RISKS
No critical risks detected
COLOR DISTRIBUTION